tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post1132194836612862895..comments2022-08-15T11:27:16.834-04:00Comments on The Verdant Dude: Pick me, Monty!Verdant Earlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03139591223231428391noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-78021342726143846342009-04-07T20:59:00.000-04:002009-04-07T20:59:00.000-04:00Becky - I know how much you drank this weekend. I...Becky - I know how much you drank this weekend. I read about it on Twitter. Drunk Twitter girl. ;)Verdant Earlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03139591223231428391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-28682080515006265712009-04-07T20:28:00.000-04:002009-04-07T20:28:00.000-04:00do you know how much i drank this weekend? obviou...do you know how much i drank this weekend? obviously not or you would have never done this to me. hell, my weekend hangovers didn't hurt my head this much.hello haha narfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07172128004814968237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-25726019739279729972009-04-07T11:59:00.000-04:002009-04-07T11:59:00.000-04:00Candy - One would hope so, but no. :)Slyde - what?...Candy - One would hope so, but no. :)<BR/><BR/>Slyde - what? Where the hell do you come up with that? And here I've been telling everyone you are smart. Or stupid. Now I forget which.<BR/><BR/>Heff - That was the whole point of this post. To make someone's head hurt. Congratulations! ;)Verdant Earlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03139591223231428391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-25469745133908492532009-04-07T11:55:00.000-04:002009-04-07T11:55:00.000-04:00These comments have my head hurting !!!These comments have my head hurting !!!Heffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13396114362826135207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-23777054971340610222009-04-07T11:12:00.000-04:002009-04-07T11:12:00.000-04:00thats bunk. Yes, the new door you picked would no...thats bunk. Yes, the new door you picked would now have a 2/3 chance of being the right door,<BR/><BR/>BUT...<BR/><BR/>the door you originally picked has now had its odds improved to 2/3 as well. its all bull.<BR/><BR/>believe me. I'm in the NY times, you know....Slydehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02170343849186268727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-11015977381877407882009-04-07T10:33:00.000-04:002009-04-07T10:33:00.000-04:00so you lost me at "math probability problem". Is t...so you lost me at "math probability problem". <BR/><BR/>Is there a School House Rock on youtube for that??Candy's daily Dandyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18172746492146546253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-66673344710350607922009-04-07T10:23:00.000-04:002009-04-07T10:23:00.000-04:00Ookami - there you have it. From a Statistics guy...Ookami - there you have it. From a Statistics guy even. (I was kinda hoping you would comment)Verdant Earlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03139591223231428391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-58940655433273509132009-04-07T10:14:00.000-04:002009-04-07T10:14:00.000-04:00Adam - The reason the odds are 2:3 is because Mont...Adam - The reason the odds are 2:3 is because Monty will always reveal a goat, his pick is not random.<BR/><BR/>Think of it this way: at the start of the game you have 1:3 chance of picking correctly, or a 2:3 chance of picking incorrectly. Now when Monty opens up a goat door, you still picked yours with a 1:3 chance of being right, so now since we have more information you can change your bet to the other door which has a 2:3 chance of being right. The only way you would lose when you switched doors is if you picked the correct door in the first place.<BR/><BR/>Oh, just thought of another way to think about it. At start you have 1:3 chance of picking correctly. after revel there are still three doors to choose from, however you would never pick the goat door that was revealed. So since your original door was correct in 1:3 the last door left has to be correct 2:3... essentially if you switch you get to pick two doors, however Monty opens a boring one first for you.<BR/><BR/>We would do this problem for open house at K-State with the Statistics program. I think it made more people angry than it helped with recruiting. :)<BR/>I switched "our hands on display" to a random sampling problem when I ran the booth.Ookami Snowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10396649763195640076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-76836260617045180832009-04-07T09:21:00.000-04:002009-04-07T09:21:00.000-04:00Adam - The horse race analogy is not a good one be...Adam - The horse race analogy is not a good one because you would need 3 horses with exactly the same chance of winning. And you don't have someone who already knows the outcome picking which horse drops out. You can debate it to death, but you can't disagree with the results.Verdant Earlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03139591223231428391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-11930630526281778282009-04-07T08:51:00.000-04:002009-04-07T08:51:00.000-04:00Odds are always redrawn every time new information...Odds are always redrawn every time new information presents itself.<BR/><BR/>That's like saying if you have three horses in a race, and you bet on one, if the other horse drops out mid-race, you have a 2:3 chance of your horse winning. It's simply not true. It was true at the time the horse dropped out, but once it's gone, your chance is 1:2.<BR/><BR/>This is one of those problems I can debate to death!Avitablehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08541188721193079705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-76827539618531994662009-04-07T08:49:00.000-04:002009-04-07T08:49:00.000-04:00Michelle - it's a tricky one.Adam - OK. The only ...Michelle - it's a tricky one.<BR/><BR/>Adam - OK. The only reason I said that Monty is working the contestant is because the basic premise of the problem is that the host knows where the grand prize is. He has inside information. But you can't look at it as two separate problems like you are. Odds aren't really re-drawn at each step. You would agree that initially you have a 1/3 chance to pick the grand prize, right? And you would agree that would leave the remaining two doors with a 2/3 chance collectively, right? THAT'S what the problem is all about. When Monty takes away one of those doors it doesn't change the initial probabilities. Did you try the simulation? It works.<BR/><BR/>2abes - I agree. It doesn't "feel" right, but it is.Verdant Earlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03139591223231428391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-45418675814292590892009-04-07T08:27:00.000-04:002009-04-07T08:27:00.000-04:00thanks, i won't get this out of my head all day, i...thanks, i won't get this out of my head all day, its like a bad song. i tried it and for some unexplainable reason it turns out that switching your door choice after one door is revealed does result in a better win percetange.2abesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-56233333003247674452009-04-07T08:26:00.000-04:002009-04-07T08:26:00.000-04:00I've seen this before and I disagree with the resu...I've seen this before and I disagree with the result.<BR/><BR/>It's improper to try to work in someone's state of mind into a math equation. You can't say that Monty is trying to trick you. Math is exact and "trying to trick you" is inexact.<BR/><BR/>When there are three doors, there's a 1:3 chance that the money is behind the door you chose.<BR/><BR/>At the exact moment Monty reveals the goat, yes, this means that your chances of picking the money have changed to 2:3.<BR/><BR/>However, after he reveals the goat, the third door is now completely taken out of the equation, and your chances are 1:2. There are only two unknowns and only one right choice.<BR/><BR/>Odds are drawn and re-drawn at every given second using all available quantifiable knowledge and information. That's why I think this problem is a faulty one, because you're entering an non-quantifiable factor (he wants to trick you) in to an equation where it doesn't belong.Avitablehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08541188721193079705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32194857.post-82164613064637471622009-04-07T06:33:00.000-04:002009-04-07T06:33:00.000-04:00Interesting reading before my run!! It is a lot t...Interesting reading before my run!! It is a lot to digest I am going to have to reread this. I like math problems. Good stuff green man!!!Michellehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13012277904032798697noreply@blogger.com